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Market Analysis

Kalshi is seeking a $40Bn raise less than two months after raising $22Bn in its Series F funding round, with an IPO slated to be next

Market Analysis

Kalshi Targets $40Bn Valuation Seven Weeks After $22Bn Series F

Kalshi is in talks to raise at a $40Bn valuation, almost doubling its $22Bn Series F price in seven weeks, as $2Bn revenue and institutional demand reshape prediction markets.

Tim BakerJun 25, 20264 min read

A new prediction market by Meta has been greenlit by Mark Zuckerberg, and will be named 'Meta Arena', looking to rival Kalshi and Polymarket

Market Analysis

Zuckerberg Greenlights Meta Prediction Market to Challenge Polymarket and Kalshi

Meta Arena, personally approved by Zuckerberg, targets Polymarket and Kalshi with a points-based prediction market backed by 3.56 billion daily active users.

Tim BakerJun 24, 20264 min read

BlackRock is back in the news as the world's largest asset manager advises a 1-2% Bitcoin risk budget for client portfolios

Market Analysis

BlackRock Sets 1–2% Bitcoin Risk Budget for Advisor Portfolios

BlackRock Investment Institute's formal 1–2% Bitcoin allocation guidance gives advisors a risk-budgeting framework comparable to a single Magnificent Seven holding.

Tim BakerJun 24, 20263 min read

Apollo Debt Solutions (ADS) triggered its 5% quarterly Apollo credit redemption gate for the second consecutive quarter.

Market Analysis

Offshore Investors Drive Apollo Debt Solutions’ Second Straight Gate Trigger

Offshore investors requested 12.5% of ADS shares vs. 4.3% onshore, driving Apollo Debt Solutions to trigger its 5% redemption gate for a second straight quarter.

Tim BakerJun 23, 20264 min read

Polymarket has come under fire once more after a Wall Street Journal expose found millions of dollars in fake wins to lure customers

Market Analysis

Polymarket $1.9M Wins Were Staged and Scripted Losses

A WSJ investigation found Polymarket paid creators to film fake bets on dummy sites, with $1.9M in depicted wins that would have been real losses on…

Tim BakerJun 22, 20263 min read

Iran stocks are flying as the TEDPIX index rallied to new all-time highs on the back of the US-Iran peace deal

Market Analysis

TEDPIX Hits 5.1M Points: What Iran Stocks Rally Tells Us About Bitcoin

Iran's TEDPIX surged to a historic 5.1 million points after the US-Iran MoU, but Bitcoin's closure-proof structure exposes a key capital-preservation gap.

Tim BakerJun 20, 20264 min read

A Kalshi IPO could be on the way, which would make it the first publicly traded prediction market platform

Market Analysis

Kalshi’s $22B Valuation Faces IPO Test as State Lawsuits Threaten Its Biggest Revenue Driver

Kalshi opens IPO discussions backed by $2B annualized revenue and a $22B valuation, but state lawsuits targeting its sports markets cloud the path to listing.

Tim BakerJun 19, 20264 min read