Comparing Public Bitcoin Adoption Rates in 2021 vs 2017

Faith in large financial institutions has been steadily waning for more than a decade and the COVID-19 pandemic has only accelerated this process. Bitcoin, itself developed in the years after the 2008 market crash as an alternative to traditional assets, stands to be a major beneficiary of this trend. 

Research on consumer perceptions of Bitcoin is fragmented and sparse. Surveys on attitudes toward Bitcoin have typically focused on the level of consumer knowledge of this asset class, and not on Bitcoin as a long-term store of value. Given the rapid emergence of Bitcoin, many of these surveys have also become obsolete – having been conducted in 2017 or earlier.

Further, little investigation has been done into the impact of volatile market fluctuations – such as the situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic – on confidence in Bitcoin.

Our research seeks to address this knowledge gap. In October 2020, we surveyed 4,852 participants in 17 countries. Our aim was two-fold.

First, we collated several 2017 surveys on attitudes to Bitcoin, and used these as a baseline to assess how attitudes toward the asset have changed in the past three years. Secondly, we asked respondents directly how the market fluctuations caused by COVID-19 have impacted their view of Bitcoin.

The results are striking. We found increased knowledge of, and growing confidence in, Bitcoin among all age and gender groups surveyed. This effect was most pronounced in millennial respondents, 45% of whom would now preferentially invest in Bitcoin over stocks, real estate and gold.

Another finding provides an explanation for this: 47% of our respondents trust Bitcoin over big banks, an increase of 29% in the past three years. 

These data indicate that Bitcoin has a bright future, and will likely benefit significantly from the current market crisis. With confidence in traditional investment instruments decreasing, Bitcoin stands poised to offer investors an alternative, long-term store of value.

Background

Since its inception Bitcoin has received its fair share of critics. BTC has been referred to as everything from rat poison to a Ponzi scheme. As a nascent technology, the BTC narrative has gone through many evolutions and changes in public perception. 

Bitcoin’s origins can be traced to a small group of technologists who lost faith in the banking system during the last global crisis. In 2009, reckless behavior by the largest Wall Street banks led to widespread panic, ultimately causing the Great Recession. Many of these banks were bailed out by their respective governments and faced limited repercussions in terms of accountability or liability. 

In response to the last crisis, the US Federal Reserve under Ben Bernanke embarked on a large-scale asset buying program. At the time, the Fed was much more concerned with deflation than inflation, which Ben Bernanke explained in a rare interview with 60 minutes. 

Almost a decade on from the last crisis, we now stand at an important crossroads in public perception of economics and value transfer.  

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread interruptions in the global economy resulting in unprecedented quantitative easing. As of April 24th, 2020 the Fed Balance Sheet was quickly approaching 6 trillion with funds earmarked for small businesses running dry almost immediately. 

With over 20 million Americans currently unemployed, the public narrative towards BTC has changed. Goldman Sachs recently announced that its Millennial Fund has beaten 95% of its peers during the COVID-19 crisis, as the lockdown forces the broader public to quickly adopt millennial trends. 

The situation left us wondering: is millennial reception of Bitcoin a leading indicator of change in the broader sentiment surrounding Bitcoin?

Methodology

We set out to conduct the largest survey yet of public opinion about Bitcoin asking over 4,852 participants in 17 countries. As a baseline we used the same questions and groups as three of the most widely cited surveys about BTC confidence. 

Our study was conducted for TheTokenist.io utilizing two sample sets of data. 

Sample 1 consisted of 4,111 participants total utilizing an online multiple choice questionnaire. Fieldwork was undertaken September 21st to October 9th, 2020. Our margin of error for total respondents is +/- 2-6%.

Responds were aged 18 – 65+. Over 43% of our survey responds fell within the 25-35 age range and only 17% were qualified as female millenials. 

Surveys were conducted via Google Surveys (results available here) as well as an email campaign sent out to The Tokenist readership. Google Survey results came from 4,111 applicants and The Tokenist represented 741 readers. Our comparison studies utilize Harris Polls which provides online polling solutions. We believe data generated from Google Surveys is reliable and contains a large sample set of possible respondents. Google Surveys is widely used as a reliable means of research, notable use cases include the 2012 US elections, surveys run by NYT. Pew Research has has found Google Consumer Surveys sample appears to conform closely to the demographic composition of the overall internet population. 

Survey 2 was taken from The Tokenist’s email list. A total of 741 participants surveyed out of 12,431 replied with only 75.2 % responding to the full questionnaire. Entry participants were entered into a draw to win .3 BTC for completion of said survey.

This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore no estimate of theoretical sampling error can be calculated. For a more complete picture of our survey methodology and sample size please contact us at info@tokenistmedia.com

Previous Surveys

• eToro – April 8, 2019 Survey – 1,000 Americans, aged 20-65. Conducted by Provoke Insights.
• BlockChain Capital – Survey of over 2,000 adults from October 18-20, 2017 among 2,112 U.S. adults, ages 18 and older. Conducted online via Harris Poll.
• BankRate – This study was conducted for Bankrate.com by GfK Custom Research North America.The sample consists of 1,000 completed interviews, 18 years and older. Undertaken July 6-8, 2018

Our Process

• 4,852 responses, 17 countries, aging from 18-65
• Same questions asked 12-24 months after the baseline surveys

Results

Our results showed a significant increase in positive sentiment regarding BTC as a long term store of value.

• Over 45% of respondents preferred Bitcoin over stocks, real estate, and gold.
• 61% of the total respondents (and 78% of millennials) are now somewhat familiar with BTC, and 14% of millennials have owned the asset.
• 60% of respondents felt that Bitcoin is a positive innovation in financial technology, an increase of 27% in three years.
• 47% of respondents trust Bitcoin over big banks, an increase of 29% in the past three years.
• 43% of respondents, and 59% of millennials, feel that most people will be using Bitcoin within the next decade.
• In 2020, 44% of millennials report that they are likely to buy BTC in the next five years.
• More than one in three millennials would hold onto Bitcoin they are given, while a slightly smaller number (27%) would immediately sell it.
• 39% of male millennials now have no problem with the intangible nature of BTC, and a quarter of millennials as a whole report the same attitude.
•  Just 24% of millennials think that Bitcoin is a bubble, though 50% of the over-65s do.

Comparing Public Attitudes about Bitcoin Adoption from 2017 – 2020

1. Comparing Bitcoin to other forms of financial assets, would you prefer $1,000 of Bitcoin or $1,000 of… ?

1. government bonds
2. stocks
3. real estate
4. gold

Baseline Survey Results:

Our Results:

Commentary

Over 45% of respondents would prefer to own Bitcoin over stocks, real estate and gold, an increase of 13% over the 2017 baseline. Although confidence in BTC dropped marginally in the 65+ age group, among millenials confidence has increased dramatically against three asset classes: government bonds, real estate, and gold. There has, however, been a slight increase in confidence in stocks against BTC. 

The most dramatic increase is in the number of male millennials who would now prefer to own BTC over government bonds. In our survey, the number of male millennials expressing this preference surpassed the 50% mark, the first time that a majority has expressed confidence in this way. 

While Bitcoin has experienced multiple cycles of volatility since 2017 it has still remained the leading alternative asset preserving its original roots as a hedge against traditional financial markets. This growing confidence is demonstrated by an enormous increase in public confidence towards BTC as an asset class.

We also notice a drop in public confidence towards traditional financial assets like stocks and bonds. Perhaps compounded by the recent COVID-19 market fluctuations we see the BTC narrative strongly supported whenever central banks print money. 

2. How familiar are you with Bitcoin?

1. I own/have owned Bitcoin
2. Very familiar
3. Somewhat familiar
4. Heard of it but not familiar
5. Never heard of it

Baseline Survey Results:

Our Results:

Commentary

Our data show that familiarity with Bitcoin has increased substantially since 2017. 36% of all respondents are now somewhat familiar with BTC, and 6% of all respondents have owned it. 

Since the baseline surveys, BTC has seen increased familiarity across all age groups and in both genders. Whereas in 2017, the majority of respondents to this question indicated that they had either heard of BTC but were not familiar with it, or had never heard of BTC. In 2020, the majority of respondents reported that they are at least somewhat familiar with Bitcoin. 

There are two dramatic shifts visible in these data. One is among male millennials, who are now 20% more likely to be very familiar with BTC, and 7% more likely to own it. The most striking finding, however, is the 51% increase in the number of people over 65 years of age who are now familiar with BTC.

These findings are likely the result of the rapidly increasing profile of BTC in the news media, and of the increased support for Bitcoin among retailers. The last three years have seen BTC being increasingly covered in the mainstream press, which remains the primary source of information for those over 65 years of age. Many retailers, and especially online retailers, have also moved to support Bitcoin payments, which may explain the increased adoption rates among millennials. 

3. How much do you agree or disagree with this statement: “Bitcoin is a positive innovation in financial technology”?

1. Strongly Agree
2. Somewhat agree
3. Somewhat disagree
4. Strongly disagree
5. Not at all sure

Baseline Survey Results:

Our Results:

Commentary

Attitudes toward BTC are becoming more definite, and more positive. 60% of respondents felt that Bitcoin is a positive innovation in financial technology, an increase of 27% in three years. 

These data indicate that there has been a dramatic increase in knowledge about BTC over the past three years. In 2017, 40% of respondents felt unable to assess whether the technology was a positive financial innovation. Increased familiarity with Bitcoin (see question 2) has convinced many that it is a positive force. This effect is most pronounced in female millennials and those aged over 65, who are now strikingly more informed – and more positive about – BTC.

Male millennials are also becoming more positive about Bitcoin. 70% of this group feel that it is a positive innovation, the highest level of confidence among any of the groups surveyed. 

These data represent extremely positive news for BTC as a sector. They indicate that the largest single obstacle to positivity regarding BTC is a lack of knowledge amongst consumers. Once consumers – of all ages, and both genders – are provided with knowledge about the technology, they are far more likely to view it as a positive financial innovation.

4. If you had to choose, which of the following is more trustworthy?

1. Bitcoin
2. Big banks (e.g. Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs)

Baseline Survey Results:

Our Results:

Commentary

There has been a significant loss of trust in traditional banking institutions over the past three years, and Bitcoin has benefitted from this. 47% of respondents trust Bitcoin over big banks, an increase of 29% in the past three years. 

Increased trust in BTC, when compared to big banks, is primarily seen among millennials. This group is now essentially evenly split on this question, with half having more trust in BTC, and the other half in big banks. Male and female respondents both show increased trust in BTC, with both about 17% more likely to trust Bitcoin years ago, but the trust that females place in the currency has started from a lower base.

Respondents aged over 65, on the other hand, seem highly reluctant to put their trust in BTC. Fully 93% still trust big banks over Bitcoin, and this level of trust has stayed essentially constant since 2017.

These trends are likely a response to two factors: the recent volatility of assets held by big banks, and the increased professionalization of the BTC sector. Three years ago, many of the largest BTC brokers were relatively new and were therefore accorded a low level of trust. Now, there appears to be an appreciation of the maturity, and stability, of these providers. 

5. How much do you agree or disagree with this statement: “It’s likely that most people will be using Bitcoin in the next 10 years”?

1. Strongly agree
2. Somewhat agree
3. Somewhat disagree
4. Strongly disagree
5. Not at all sure

Baseline Survey Results:

Our Results:

Commentary

Confidence that Bitcoin will become a widely used currency has increased in the past three years. 43% of respondents, and 59% of millennials, feel that most people will be using Bitcoin within the next decade. 

A significant majority of respondents who felt able to make this prediction felt that BTC would become a popular currency in the next ten years. Just 23% of respondents who expressed an opinion felt that the currency would not be widely used, a number smaller than the percentage of respondents (36%) who were not sure about the question.

The largest increase in confidence about Bitcoin among our respondents is seen in the millennial age group, with millennials 17% more likely to see BTC as a majority currency in the near future. Over 65s remain skeptical that the currency will reach mainstream adoption, with just 3% strongly agreeing with this statement, but increased knowledge of BTC among this age group is seen in increased confidence to predict its future.

These shifts are likely the result of increased support for Bitcoin among consumer-facing businesses. Many large retailers have announced that they will start accepting Bitcoin since 2017, and in this context many respondents appear to have reached the (logical) conclusion that the majority of consumers will take advantage of this at some point in the next decade. 

6. How likely are you to buy Bitcoin in the next 5 years?

1. Very likely
2. Somewhat likely
3. Not very likely
4. Not at all likely
5. Not at all sure

Baseline Survey Results:

Our Results:

Commentary

Millennial respondents indicated that they are far more likely to buy Bitcoin in the next five years than they were three years ago. In 2020, 44% of millennials report that they are likely to buy BTC in the next five years. 

This is despite minor fluctuations in the number of male millennials – the group most engaged with BTC – who plan to buy Bitcoin in the next five years. Female millennials, on the other hand, are far more likely to do so, with now one in three expecting that they will invest in BTC in the short term.

All this said, the number of over-65s who are expecting to make an investment in Bitcoin has stayed relatively stable over the past few years. Most, almost 80%, do not expect to invest in this way.

Though the data from this question appear to indicate little change when it comes to the practical process of actually buying BTC, they must be read in conjunction with the findings produced by other parts of our survey. The rate that millennials are buying BTC is increasing, even if their intention to do so is not.

At first glance, this might seem strange. However, it might indicate that the difficulty of buying BTC is no longer a major obstacle for those interested in investing: that everyone who intends to buy BTC is already doing so.

7. If someone gave you bitcoin, what would you do with it?

1. Hold onto it
2. Sell it
3. Spend it
4. Other
5. Not at all sure

Baseline Survey Results:

Our Results:

Commentary

If our respondents were given Bitcoin, most would hold onto it. More than one in three millennials would hold onto Bitcoin they are given, while a significantly smaller number (9%) would immediately sell it on.

At first glance, there appears to have been little change in these data above our baseline surveys from 2017. However, these data reflect an increased knowledge among all the groups surveyed about the options that would be available to them if they were given Bitcoin. In 2017, nearly 40% of respondents said that they would not know what to do with BTC if they were gifted it; by 2020, that same number has decreased to 23%.

Of those people who now feel informed to make a choice about what they would do in this instance, intentions are fairly evenly spread across the three main options: holding onto their BTC, immediately selling it, or spending it. 

The slight increase in the number of people who said they would spend their gifted Bitcoin may be an indication of the number of online stores in which this is now possible, but otherwise, intentions have remained fairly static since 2017.

8. How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “I don’t see the value in Bitcoin because it is an intangible good (i.e., I can’t touch it)”?

1. Strongly agree
2. Somewhat agree
3. Somewhat disagree
4. Strongly disagree
5. Not at all sure

Baseline Survey Results:

Our Results:

Commentary

The number of respondents who don’t see the value in Bitcoin because it is an intangible good has decreased significantly since 2017. 40% of male millennials now have no problem with the intangible nature of BTC, and over a third of millennials as a whole report the same attitude.

In fact, attitudes to Bitcoin are changing rapidly for all respondents. Back in 2017, nearly half of those surveyed (49%) felt that the intangibility of BTC made it an untrustworthy investment. Today, only 15% of people do, and these are largely concentrated in older age groups.

These data also reflect the growing knowledge about Bitcoin across the surveyed base. In fact, it is tempting to conclude that the increase in the number of people who don’t see intangible assets as a risk has come from those who have researched BTC for the first time in the last few years. That, in other words, those who saw a problem with Bitcoin’s intangibility in 2017 still feel the same way.

Other explanations of these data are possible, however. As the lessons of the 2018 crash hace percolated through the public consciousness, it has become increasingly apparent to many investors that even supposedly “tangible” assets – such as stocks – are anything but. This has removed the primary negative factor in the public perception of BTC, and led to a fairer assessment of its value.

9. How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Bitcoin is a bubble (e.g. the real estate bubble of 2007, the dotcom bubble of the ’90s)”?

1. Strongly agree
2. Somewhat agree
3. Somewhat disagree
4. Strongly disagree
5. Not at all sure

Baseline Survey Results:

Our Results:

Commentary

The number of respondents who see the value of Bitcoin as a “bubble” has also decreased significantly in the past three years. Just under a quarter of millennials think that Bitcoin is a bubble, though exactly 50% of the over-65 age group believe it is. 

In 2017, female millennials were particularly skeptical about the long-term stability of BTC, with nine in ten of this group either feeling it was a bubble, or that they didn’t have enough information to know. Confidence has also increased among male millennials, though not as much, and the over-65s remain stubbornly resistant to the idea that Bitcoin is here to stay. 

There has also been a large decrease in the number of respondents who feel they don’t have enough knowledge or information to make this assessment. It appears, in addition, that those who now feel more informed about BTC are not inclined to see it as an unsustainable asset class.

Again, this is great news for the Bitcoin sector. It appears that the biggest obstacle in convincing respondents that BTC is not a bubble is simply the lack of information that the public has on this. As public consciousness of Bitcoin rises, it is therefore likely that confidence will rise in parallel. 

10. What is the best way to invest your money you wouldn’t need for 10 years?

Baseline Survey Results:

Our Results:

Note: 5% did not answer this question. This question is not sorted by age. 

Survey respondents indicated a growing degree of confidence in BTC. While we don’t have a benchmark to compare the growth of confidence in our sample set, we can assume a growing level of confidence based on early reports by BankRate and Forbes which indicate Bitcoin as having 2-5% confidence compared to other asset classes.

11. Favorite Long Term Investments by Generation

Notes ** Since we didn’t have the data available for the Bankrate study, we recreated the same questions by allowing each age group to select between a specific asset class. 

We are unable to figure out how Bankrate polled “The Silent Generation” as most participants would need to be 95-115 years old.

12. Which of the following makes Bitcoin an attractive choice?

13. How much do you agree or disagree with this statement: “It’s likely that Bitcoin will increase in value post COV19.”?

1. Strongly agree
2. Somewhat agree
3. Somewhat disagree
4. Strongly disagree
5. Not at all sure