Oil Up 4% as US Sanctions and Geopolitical Risk Premium Set the Narrative

Oil prices rose roughly 4% on Friday as geopolitical risks remained in focus amid the Israel conflict over the weekend, further broadening concerns over global oil supply constraints. Moreover, oil received another boost after the US tightened sanctions on Russian exports on Thursday.

Oil Price Set for a 5% Weekly Gain

Crude oil prices edged higher on Friday amid growing supply risks posed by escalating tensions in the Middle East, highlighted by the growing death toll in the Israel conflict. 

The price of the global benchmark Brent futures climbed by 3.86% to $89.3. Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced 4% to $86.3 on the day. 

Apart from a few dips, both Brent and WTI are on track to record a weekly gain of about 5% and 3.5%, respectively. The uptrend has been driven by potential disruptions to oil exports in the Middle East following the latest conflict between Israel and the Hamas militant group. 

“(A) geopolitical risk premium still lingers around the corner that is likely to support oil prices in the short-term,” said Kelvin Wong, senior markets analyst at OANDA in Singapore. However, it is not the war that fueled oil prices’ gains this week but rather the risks it poses to oil flows. 

“There has been no sign so far that the leading oil producing countries in the region will become directly involved in the military conflict, which would threaten to considerably restrict the crude oil output of these countries.”

– Commerzbank analysts Thu Lan Nguyen and Carsten Fritsch wrote in a research note.

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US Further Tightens Sanctions on Russian Crude Exports

In a series of price catalysts that recently emerged, oil received an additional boost on Friday after the US further tightened its sanctions plan against Russian crude exports, broadening supply concerns in the global market. 

Notably, The US unveiled the first sanctions on owners of tankers carrying Russian oil priced above the $60 a barrel limit introduced by the G7 group. The move aims to address the loopholes in the sanctions program launched by the Western nations in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. 

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned on Friday that the ongoing war in Ukraine and the new clash between Israel and Hamas could have “far-reaching impacts on energy and food markets, global trade, and geopolitical relationships.” 

“This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades,” he added. Dimon also mentioned the possible effects of another potential increase in the already-high interest rates and the growing government deficits. 

Where do you think oil prices may stand by the end of 2023, considering the current market conditions and growing geopolitical tensions? Let us know in the comments below.