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On November 14, Twitter user classicmacro published a report put together by Citibank senior executive Thomas Fitzpatrick. It showcased a clear bullish sentiment for Bitcoin, which has been experiencing a few strong months. The executive was highly optimistic of Bitcoin’s increasing value by the end of 2021, though many would say it’s an unrealistic forecast.
Bitcoin has been on the receiving end of lots of good news lately, not the least of which is support from PayPal. But even with all these good tidings, do Bitcoin’s prospects align with Fitzpatrick’s predictions?
Citibanks Report on Bitcoin Explained
To start with, Fitzpatrick notes that Bitcoin’s wild price swings over the years is a “pattern that sustains a long term trend.” He refers to this in a technical analysis examination of the digital currency’s price. The gist of it, however, is that rally timeframes are getting longer and definite patterns are being formed.
This eventually leads him to offer a potential price target of $318,000 by December 2021. This is unusually high, even more so for someone who comes from the banking industry. Most price estimates are quite bullish, but none go so deep into six-figure territory.
As for why Bitcoin could reach such a price, Fitzpatrick points to global economic policies, inflation rates, and the pandemic. He ties these reasons to conclude that the cryptocurrency is 21st-century gold that investors will use as a hedge. This is a stance that proponents touted multiple times in the past, and precarious economic forecasts underscore it.
Bitcoin has often been called digital gold, and that is primarily the reason why Fitzpatrick believes its price will surge. The uncertainty surrounding other markets and Bitcoin’s continued existence is the main theme in his argument. This has long been the same argument put forward by the digital assets proponents.
He ends the report by providing the technical analysis chart and a timeframe of 12–24 months for a Bitcoin rally. This is in line with what many analysts have predicted — but is he a bit too bullish?
Is Citibank’s Bitcoin Forecast too Bullish?
The cryptocurrency community is never one to turn down a bullish prediction for the asset. But even for them, who have long stood by Bitcoin, the target of $318,000 seems widely unrealistic.
One of the market’s most prominent analysts, PlanB, recently doubled down on his S2FX model. This “Stock to Flow” model has achieved fame for its correct predictions of the 2017 high and 2019 low. But even this, which has significant support, only puts the target price at $100,000–$288,000 by December 2021.
While cryptocurrency investors have supported the S2FX model, even they are now beginning to doubt it. This cautionary approach would undoubtedly apply to the $318,000 prediction. Investors are not overblowing the news of Fitzpatrick’s prediction because they know better with their experience.
✅ Confused about Bitcoin? See our in-depth guide to Bitcoin investing.
However, one outcome most analysts agree on is that Bitcoin is set to have a strong 2021. Network activity, options volume, and of course, Bitcoin’s price have all surged in 2020. More Bitcoin is also flowing into Ethereum, where it is used in the popular DeFi market.
A Likely Target for Bitcoin
What’s a reasonable expectation for Bitcoin in 2021 then? Going by technical analyses, many tout a number closer to the $100,000 range. But that would take an upward push that is unprecedented.
When Bitcoin previously reached its all-time high of nearly $20,000, it was done through retail investors. Can retail investors really offer the same growth to a price level of $100,000? More conservative estimates have Bitcoin’s price at the roughly $50,000 price levels in 2021.
Much of the consensus is that Bitcoin will go upwards in the following years. This was the belief before 2020, but a year of difficult economic circumstances has only furthered the conviction. The key takeaway is that both technical and financial indicators point to more adoption and growth.
It is impossible to predict with accuracy where Bitcoin’s price will be in weeks, let alone months or even years. The asset is too new to be able to make conclusive statements like that. However, the state of the global economy and other circumstances work in its favor.
Coupled with the arrival of institutional investment and support from platforms like PayPal, Bitcoin stands a good chance to reach more people. And that is where the true value lies — in its use. Following more use, a price increase will be inevitable, as supply distribution will reduce with time.
📈 Did you know: The leading stock market apps now offer access to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Where do you think Bitcoin will be at the end of 2021? Are these price estimates too bullish? Let us know what you think in the comments below.