Why Is Exxon Mobil (XOM) Climbing Premarket? Oil Spikes on Geopolitical Risk

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) shares surged in premarket trading Monday morning as escalating U.S.-Iran military conflict sent crude oil prices sharply higher, igniting a broad rally across the energy sector. The geopolitical shock, triggered by attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and wider regional strikes, injected a significant risk premium into oil markets, pushing Brent crude up as much as 13% and WTI over 12% intraday.

For Exxon, the world’s largest publicly traded oil company, the sudden spike in crude prices represents a potential windfall for its vast upstream operations in the Permian Basin and Guyana. The move comes as broader markets sold off, with S&P 500 futures falling 1–1.5%, underscoring how energy stocks are functioning as a geopolitical hedge in Monday’s risk-off session.

Supply Disruption Fears Lift Oil and Energy Stocks

The catalyst behind Monday’s move is a dramatic escalation in U.S.-Iran hostilities, with attacks reported on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows, alongside broader regional military strikes.

Brent crude futures surged as high as $82.37 per barrel, the highest level since January 2025, before pulling back to around $79.39, while West Texas Intermediate climbed to an intraday high of $75.33, up over 12% and the highest since June. The disruption has effectively upended prior forecasts: the U.S. Energy Information Administration had projected WTI averaging just $53.42 per barrel in 2026, down from $65.40 in 2025 due to rising inventories, but analysts now warn prices could reach $100 or more if supply disruptions persist.

Energy stocks broadly outperformed the wider market as investors rotated into the sector as a geopolitical hedge. Among the biggest movers, Exxon Mobil rose approximately 5.9%, ConocoPhillips gained 6.2%, and Occidental Petroleum climbed between 6% and 7.5%. Oilfield services firms also participated, with Halliburton and SLB gaining 5.7% and 4.3%, respectively.

The rally reflects how integrated oil majors with large upstream exposure stand to benefit most directly from elevated crude prices, even as downstream refining margins face potential pressure if broader economic activity softens in response to higher energy costs. Exxon’s integrated business model, spanning exploration, production, refining, and chemicals, provides a degree of resilience in this environment.

Its upstream operations in the low-cost Permian Basin and fast-growing Guyana assets are particularly well-positioned to capture margin expansion from higher crude prices. Energy analysts noted that Exxon’s strong balance sheet and low-cost production profile make it one of the sector’s best-equipped names to sustain profitability through a period of elevated and potentially volatile oil prices.

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XOM Stock Brief: Premarket Price, Recent Trends, and Key Metrics

As of premarket trading on March 2, 2026 (captured at 6:21 AM EST), XOM was quoted at $158.92, up $6.32 or +4.14% from Friday’s closing price of $152.50. Friday’s close itself represented a 2.67% gain on heavy volume of over 30 million shares, well above the stock’s average daily volume of approximately 19.3 million, capping a strong February in which shares hit a 52-week high near $157.

Year-to-date, XOM has returned roughly +27.57%, dramatically outpacing the S&P 500’s +0.49% gain over the same period, and over the past year the stock is up 43.20% versus the index’s 17.36%. From a fundamentals standpoint, Exxon’s most recent quarterly earnings – reported January 30 for Q4 2025 – showed adjusted EPS of $1.71, beating the consensus estimate of $1.63, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of earnings beats.

Full-year 2025 earnings totaled $28.8 billion, and the company returned $37.2 billion to shareholders, including $17.2 billion in dividends (the second-highest payout among S&P 500 companies) and $20 billion in buybacks, with similar repurchases planned through 2026. The stock carries a dividend yield of approximately 2.7%, with an annualized payout of $4.12 per share; the most recent ex-dividend date was February 12, 2026, with payment due March 10.

Key valuation metrics as of February 27 include a market cap of $635.4 billion, a trailing P/E of 22.80, and a forward P/E of 20.70, with trailing EPS of $6.69. Analyst sentiment remains mixed at a consensus “Hold,” with an average price target around $142, below current levels, though bullish outliers like Wells Fargo maintained an Overweight rating and raised their target to $183 as recently as February 24.

The next earnings report is expected May 1, 2026, with consensus Q1 EPS projected at approximately $1.53. Exxon executives are also scheduled to speak at the Morgan Stanley Energy & Power Conference on March 3, which could offer further guidance on operations and the company’s outlook amid the evolving geopolitical situation.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.