Why Are Chevron (CVX) Shares Jumping in Premarket Today?

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) shares surged 7.74% in premarket trading on January 3, 2026, reaching $167.94 at 5:26:57 AM EST, following the controversial U.S. invasion of Venezuela. The stock closed the previous day at $155.90, up 2.29%, and has now gained approximately 6% over the past year.

The dramatic premarket move comes as Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA began cutting crude output after a U.S. oil embargo halted exports, creating significant uncertainty about Chevron’s operations in the country where it is the largest foreign investor.

U.S. Invasion Triggers Production Cuts and Export Halt

The U.S. military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, which resulted in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, was not authorized by Congress and has created significant political instability. Venezuela’s PDVSA responded by asking joint ventures, including Chevron’s, to curb crude output as storage facilities fill up.

Shipping data revealed that more than 17 million barrels of oil sat in vessels offshore, with even Chevron cargoes bound for the United States, previously moving under a Washington license, remaining stuck in Venezuelan waters since Thursday.

President Trump announced plans to have large U.S. oil companies invest billions of dollars to fix Venezuela’s badly broken oil infrastructure. Venezuela possesses an estimated 300 billion barrels of oil reserves, surpassing Saudi Arabia and accounting for approximately 17% of global oil reserves according to OPEC data.

However, the country’s extra-heavy crude requires diluent to flow through pipelines, making the trade heavily dependent on logistics and stable political conditions.

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Market Implications and Investment Outlook

Despite the premarket surge, analysts remain cautious about Chevron’s Venezuela exposure. Revitalizing Venezuela’s oil industry would require between $65 billion and $100 billion in investment and faces immense hurdles including political instability and necessary legal reforms.

Goldman Sachs indicated in a January 4 note that it sees only modest near-term risks to oil prices from Venezuela, keeping its 2026 Brent crude forecast at $56 per barrel and WTI at $52 per barrel unchanged.

Chevron’s statement emphasized that it “continues to operate in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations” while remaining “focused on the safety and wellbeing of our employees, as well as the integrity of our assets.” The company has maintained a presence in Venezuela for nearly a century and formed joint ventures with PDVSA, unlike competitors Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, which left the country decades ago.

RBC Capital’s Helima Croft suggested that full sanctions relief could unlock several hundred thousand barrels per day of production over a year, though the timeline and political stability required for such investments remain highly uncertain.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.