United Airlines (UAL) Stock Falls as CEO Warns of Fuel Cost Impact

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) shares tumbled Friday morning after CEO Scott Kirby warned that the sharp spike in jet fuel prices following the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran will have a “meaningful” impact on the carrier’s first-quarter financial results. The stock dropped over 4% in early trading, falling to $91.27 from a previous close of $95.43, extending a roughly 10% decline since the conflict began.

Kirby’s comments, made at a Harvard university event Thursday, mark one of the earliest and most direct signals from a major airline executive about the financial toll of the escalating Middle East war. Despite the cost pressures, Kirby struck a cautiously optimistic tone, pointing to resilient travel demand and booked revenue running 20% ahead of the prior year.

Fuel Price Surge Puts Pressure on Airline Profit Margins

Jet fuel, the single largest expense for airlines after labor, has surged dramatically in the wake of the conflict. According to the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index, prices reached $3.95 per gallon as of Thursday — a 58% jump from the prior Friday alone. Kirby acknowledged that United, like most major U.S. carriers, does not hedge fuel costs, leaving the airline fully exposed to spot price swings.

He noted that even airlines that do hedge face difficulty managing the so-called crack spread, the gap between crude oil prices and refined products like jet fuel. When asked about the downstream effect on consumers, Kirby said higher airfares would “probably start quick,” suggesting passengers could soon feel the pinch at the ticket counter.

Kirby also flagged that if fuel prices remain elevated, the impact would extend beyond Q1 and into the second quarter as well. These comments came less than two weeks before a closely watched JPMorgan industrials conference where airline executives typically update their financial outlooks, making his early warning particularly significant for investors and analysts tracking the sector.

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UAL Shares Today: Market Reaction and Analyst Targets

UAL shares were trading at $91.27 as of approximately 9:32 AM EST on Friday, March 6, 2026, down $4.16, or 4.36%, on the day, with a session range of $91.21 to $92.31. The stock is now sitting closer to its 52-week low of $52.00 than its high of $119.21, and has shed roughly 10% since the Iran conflict began, according to Reuters.

The selloff comes despite the company having beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, most recently posting Q4 FY25 adjusted EPS of $3.10 against an estimate of $2.94, with quarterly revenue of $15.4 billion. TD Cowen now estimates United’s Q1 adjusted earnings per share could land between just 5 and 22 cents, a dramatic downward revision from the airline’s own January guidance of $1.00 to $1.50 per share.

Despite the near-term pain, analyst consensus remains broadly constructive on the stock, with an average 1-year price target of $137.98 and a high target of $156.00. Rothschild & Co. maintained its Buy rating as recently as March 5, though it did lower its price target, reflecting the uncertainty introduced by the conflict and its effect on fuel costs industrywide.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.