Trump’s CBD Pivot: Which Cannabis Stocks Could Win Big?

On Sunday, President Trump posted a video over two minutes long that explains the purported benefits of hemp-derived cannabidiol (CBD). According to the AI-narrated video, created by Howard Kessler’s Commonwealth Project, CBD not only effectively treats a wide range of ailments, but has the potential to “revolutionize senior healthcare”.

Under the Biden administration, in April 2024, there was an attempt to start reclassifying cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III of the Controlled Substances Act, which would’ve placed marijuana alongside testosterone, anabolic steroids and ketamine. However, DEA still lists cannabis as a Schedule I substance under code number 7360.

During his campaign for the 2nd term, President Trump supported legalizing recreational marijuana. On August 11, during a White House press conference, Trump noted the following:

We’re looking at reclassification and we’ll make a determination over the next – I would say over the next few weeks, and that determination hopefully will be the right one. It’s a very complicated subject.

Now that CBD appears to be a concrete policy direction of the Trump admin, markets are already responding positively. Case in point, the WEED ETF from Roundhill surged 13% over the week, in lockstep with the MSOS ETF from AdvisorShares. The question is, which marijuana stocks are the strongest for early exposure?

Curaleaf Holdings Inc. (OTC: CURLF)

Based in Connecticut, Curaleaf runs the entire cannabis supply chain, from cultivation and processing to retail dispensing. This not only streamlines operations but ensures product consistency across edibles, oils, topicals and flowers.

As of early 2025, the company runs a network of 153 retail dispensaries across 17 states, typically targeting dense population zones within limited-license states. Internationally, Curaleaf is expanding into the U.K. and Germany, following the expanded cannabis medical law (“CanG”) after April 2024.

Case in point, Curaleaf’s imports of dried flowers (Four20) into Germany increased 4x in Q2 2025 from the year-ago quarter. In the Q2 earnings report, delivered in early August, the company generated $315 million in revenue with a gross margin of 49%, which is an increase by 120 bps year-over-year.

However, Curaleaf ended the quarter with a net loss of $47.8 million. During the first half of the year, the company spent $31.3 million on automation and facility upgrades, possibly indicating a further margin increase. Leaving Q2, Curaleaf held $102.3 million in cash reserves against outstanding debt of $561 million.

In a scenario of Schedule III reclassification, the company projected savings of around $111 million during fiscal 2024, owing to 280E tax provision. To push against competitors, Curaleaf counts on its strong portfolio branding across Reef, Anthem, Find Flower, Grassroots, Stiq, XBites, ACE and others.

According to WSJ’s forecasting, most analysts are bullish, having placed the average CURLF price target at $3.22 against the current price of $2.98 per share. The bottom outlook for CURLF stock is $1.93 while the ceiling price target is $5 per share.

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Green Thumb Industries Inc. (OTC: GTBIF)

Based in Chicago, Green Thumb has half as much debt load as Curaleaf, at $250 million. Likewise, in Q2, the company left the quarter with $179 million cash balance. In its August investor presentation, the company expects cannabis to have the highest growth, at 12% over the next decade, compared to tobacco and beer at 4%.

Across 14 states, Green Thumb operates 108 retail stores, featuring products such as Dogwalkers, Rhythm, Incredibles, Beboe, Shine, Doctor Solomon’s and others. Between 2020 and 2024, the company nearly doubled its revenue, from $557 million to $1.13 billion. Just like Curaleaf, Green Thumb runs its entire cannabis production, from cultivation to distribution.

Although GTI doesn’t operate in all states, combined with medical and adult-use, the company covers nearly half of the U.S., with adult-use sales scheduled in Minnesota as the latest expansion.

In Q2, GTI generated $293.3 million revenue, 4.7% higher from the year-ago quarter. Unlike Curaleaf, however, GTI suffered a gross margin decline due to price compression. Altogether, GTI delivered a positive net income of $0.65 million, which would have been $11 million if the one-time charge had been excluded.

Although these financial results are stronger, GTI doesn’t have plans to follow Curaleaf’s lead into Europe, making it a purely domestic cannabis play.

According to WSJ’s forecasting, GTBIF stock has a relatively high return potential, with the average price target sitting at $13.53 against the current price of $8.48 per share. The present price level is also in line with the bottom price target of $8, while the high outlook for GTBIF stock is $20 per share.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.