Pfizer Shares Fall as 2026 Outlook Reflects Weaker COVID-19 Drug Demand

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) shares declined on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, following the company’s release of its 2026 financial guidance, which fell short of Wall Street expectations. The pharmaceutical giant projected 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $2.80 to $3.00, below the analyst consensus of $3.05, as declining demand for its COVID-19 vaccine and antiviral drug continues to impact revenue.

The company also revised its 2025 revenue outlook to $62 billion, narrowing from its previous forecast of $61 billion to $64 billion, while reaffirming its 2025 adjusted earnings guidance of $3.00 to $3.15 per share. As of 10:22 AM EST, Pfizer stock was trading at $25.38, down $1.05 or 3.97% from the previous close of $26.43.

Pfizer Sees $1.5B COVID-19 Revenue Drop in 2026 Forecast

Pfizer’s 2026 outlook revealed significant headwinds ahead for the pharmaceutical company. The projected revenue range of $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion came in below the Street’s forecast of $61.6 billion, while adjusted earnings guidance of $2.80 to $3.00 per share missed the consensus estimate of $3.05.

The company attributed much of this weakness to an expected $1.5 billion decline in COVID-19 product revenues compared to 2025 levels, as demand for its vaccine and Paxlovid antiviral treatment continues to wane following the pandemic’s peak.

Additionally, Pfizer anticipates a year-over-year negative revenue impact of $1.5 billion due to loss of exclusivity on certain products, with approximately $1.6 billion in total LOE-related revenue headwinds in 2026.

Despite these challenges, the company projects its operational revenue, excluding COVID-19 and LOE products, to grow approximately 4% year-over-year in 2026.

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Shares Fall Nearly 4% Following 2026 Guidance Update

As of mid-morning trading on December 16, 2025, Pfizer stock was down 3.97% at $25.38, with a day’s range of $25.53 to $26.50. The stock has struggled in recent years, showing a three-year return of -40.58% compared to the S&P 500’s gain of 76.76%, though it has posted modest gains of 9.04% over the past year and 3.78% year-to-date. The company’s market capitalization stood at approximately $145.98 billion, with a trailing P/E ratio of 14.93 and a forward P/E of 8.73.

Analyst sentiment remains mixed, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a neutral rating and lowering its price target from $29 to $28. The average analyst price target sits at $28.87, suggesting potential upside from current levels, though recommendations are split with 26 buy ratings, 7 hold ratings, and 15 underperform or sell ratings as of early December 2025.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.