Novo Nordisk (NVO) Shares Fall on Unexpected 2026 Sales Outlook

Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO) experienced a dramatic stock decline following the company’s surprise pre-release of its 2026 forecast late Tuesday. Shares plummeted approximately 18% in Copenhagen trading and fell 5.37% to $47.60 in New York as of 10:23 AM EST on February 4, 2026.

The Danish pharmaceutical giant warned investors of a potential sales decline between 5% and 13% for 2026, a stark reversal from the 10% growth achieved in 2025. CEO Mike Doustdar candidly told CNBC that “people should expect that it goes down before it comes back up,” acknowledging significant headwinds facing the Wegovy and Ozempic maker.

Sales Forecast Signals Sharp Slowdown After 2025 Growth

The company’s adjusted sales growth forecast for 2026 excludes revenue from the reversal of 340B provisions and represents approximately 8% below consensus expectations at the midpoint, according to Bank of America analyst Sachin Jain.

This downward revision stems primarily from lower prices resulting from the “Most Favoured Nations” agreement in the U.S., patent expiry of the semaglutide molecule in certain international markets, and intensifying competition. Morgan Stanley analyst Thibault Boutherin noted that the guidance “surprised to the downside, confirming our concerns on U.S. prices and mix.”

The dramatic forecast cut comes despite early optimism around the launch of Novo’s oral Wegovy pill, which exceeded expectations with 170,000 patients after just four weeks of introduction in the U.S. However, CEO Doustdar acknowledged that “no matter how well it does in the initial period, the price hit on the existing business trumps, basically, the great pill launch that we’ve had.”

The new Wegovy pill starting dose is marketed at only $149, a fraction of previous injectable pricing, reflecting the company’s strategy to improve affordability and access while accepting near-term financial headwinds.

Barclays analysts suggested some might view the guidance as a “kitchen sink” approach that could be beaten, though they cautioned that similar optimism proved unfounded when Novo slashed guidance in July 2025, leading to a 23% single-day stock crash.

The company also announced that Dave Moore, Head of U.S. Operations who led the pill launch, would be leaving for personal reasons and would be succeeded by Jamey Millar, formerly with UnitedHealth Group.

Join our Telegram group and never miss a breaking digital asset story.

Novo Shares Slide as Market Digests 2026 Outlook

As of 10:23 AM EST on February 4, 2026, Novo Nordisk’s American depositary shares were trading at $47.60, down $2.70 or 5.37% for the day, with an intraday range of $47.17 to $49.10. The stock’s market capitalization stood at approximately $209.78 billion, with a trailing P/E ratio of 12.97 and a 52-week range between $43.08 and $93.80.

The company maintains a forward dividend yield of 3.43% and trades significantly below its 1-year target estimate of $58.59, according to Yahoo Finance data.

The turbulent guidance also impacted competitor Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), whose shares initially fell 3.9% on Tuesday before rebounding 7.58% as investors contrasted Novo’s struggles with Lilly’s stronger position in the obesity treatment market. 2025 proved historic for Novo Nordisk, with shares falling nearly 50% over the year, marking the company’s worst annual performance on record.

The company underwent significant leadership changes, appointing its first non-Danish CEO and elevating former CEO Lars Rebien Sørensen to board chair while maintaining his role as chair of Novo’s controlling shareholder, the Novo Nordisk Foundation.

When questioned whether Novo Nordisk was in crisis, CEO Doustdar firmly responded “no,” stating that “while we acknowledge 2025 presented significant challenges affecting our performance and share price, those adversaries have also made us more resilient.”

He emphasized the company’s focus on creating affordability for millions of patients who need GLP-1 products but cannot currently afford them, describing the current difficulties as short-term headwinds that will yield “a very long tailwind for years to come.” HSBC analyst Rajesh Kumar noted that the key question remains whether the recovery trajectory will resemble “a Nike swoosh or U-shaped recovery.”

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.