Fed’s Dilemma Supports Gold: Top Mining Stocks to Watch

After Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Fed fund futures show an 81% probability for a 25 bps interest rate cut in September. Since December 2022, the fed funds rate has remained above 4% to curb inflation. The Fed itself ignited inflation following the unprecedented money supply increase during 2020. Yet, between 2022 and 2024, the price of gold rose despite the Fed’s hiking cycle. Given that gold is a hedge against inflation, it could also increase in a loosened macro-environment if inflation expectations are raised. That scenario is likely, as July’s FOMC meeting attributed tariffs to inflation uncertainty.

Participants judged that considerable uncertainty remained about the timing, magnitude, and persistence of the effects of this year’s increase in tariffs.

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (July 29-30, 2025).

In short, the Fed is wedged between the need to stimulate the economy and tame inflation. This space is historically one of the most bullish for gold, acting as a hedge against both economic weakness and the inflationary consequences of the policies used to fight it. For investors looking to benefit from this trend, in addition to dividend payouts, here are notable gold exposures.

Franco-Nevada Corp. (NYSE: FNV)

In Q2, the Canadian company increased its revenue by 42% to $369.4 million from the year-ago quarter, while the net income increased by 210.8% to $247.1 million for the same period. As the price of gold rose from $2k to $3k between Q2 2024 and Q2 2025, the company’s adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 16.1%

Although having diversified assets across Canada and the U.S., Franco-Nevada gains even more revenue from South and Central America. In late July, the company acquired the existing Royalty on the Arthur Gold Project, with a “potential to more than double the existing resource base.”

More royalty streams are to flow in from Nevada Gold Mines LLC’s Gold Quarry and Côté Gold Mine in Ontario. With record revenue in H1 2025, Franco-Nevada forecasts full-year guidance between 465k to 525k GEO (Gold Equivalent Ounce) sales.

Franco-Nevada’s dividend payout increased 5.6% annually, presently at a quarterly $0.38 per FNV share. Year-to-date, FNV stock is up 52%, currently priced at $183.48. According to WSJ’s forecasting data, the average FNV price target is $192.17 per share. The current price level is in line with the bottom forecast target of $182, while the ceiling price target for FNV stock is $210 per share.

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Barrick Mining Corp. (NYSE: B)

Another Canadian mining company, Barrick increased its gold production 5% from Q1 to Q2. Notably, after upgrading Nevada Gold Mines, its production increased by 11%, while Pueblo Viejo’s mine output increased by 28% in the same period. Year-over-year, Barrick increased its net earnings per share by 124% to $0.47, to a total revenue of $3.68 billion.

After divesting from the Donlin Gold Project in Alaska, in early June, Barrick gained $1 billion in cash. This elevated the company’s cash holdings to $4.8 billion. Suffice to say, Barrick has been a reliable dividend payer and will be in the foreseeable future, presently at $0.15 per share quarterly.

Ample cash reserves also allow the company to engage in regular stock buybacks, having spent $268 million on share buybacks in Q2 alone. For full-year 2025, Barrick is expected to produce up to 3.5 Moz at a cost of sales not higher than $1,560/oz.

Year-to-date, B stock is up 64%, presently priced at $25.53. The average B price target is $27.34, with a bottom outlook of $21 and a ceiling price of $36.50 per share.

Newmont Corp. (NYSE: NEM)

Colorado-based Newmont increased its net income to $2 billion in Q2, compared to $857 million in the year-ago quarter. In Cadia and Peñasquito in particular, the company increased gold production higher-than-expected at 1,124Koz. Sitting at cash reserves of $6.2 billion, and $1.7 billion in free cash flow, the company reduced its debt by $372 million.

During Q2, Newmont repurchased $1 billion worth of shares, having approved an additional $3 billion for the stock buyback program to a total of $6 billion. The company maintains its full-year 2025 guidance from February of $30.57 billion.

For the quarter, the company significantly beat earnings expectation of $1.18 at $1.43 per share. Likewise, its reported revenue of $5.32 billion surpassed the expectation of $4.8 billion. Newmont’s quarterly dividend is $0.25 per share, having paid out $561 million in the first half of 2025.

Year-to-date, NEM stock is up 84%, presently priced at $70.79 per share. The average NEM price target is $73.83, with the bottom outlook of $63.10 and a ceiling price target of $87 per share.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.